NEO Mitigation and Coordination with the Disaster Management Community

We now realize, from the case of 2008 TC3’s discovery and subsequent impact in Sudan, that it is much more likely that a Near Earth Object (NEO) large enough to cause damage on the ground will be found (by the current Spaceguard Survey telescopes) on its "death plunge," providing a couple weeks of warning, than that a dangerous NEO will be found years or decades before impact. We also understand that serious ground damage may be caused by smaller NEOs than previously thought, and these strike the Earth more frequently. Cases of final apparition “virtual impactors” also could result in a short-term impact warning. Thus civil defense measures, like issuing a short-term alert for impending impact of a modest-sized NEO and implementing evacuation of ground-zero, will be more crucial and relevant to public officials than plans for deflecting a larger NEO by a space mission. Unfortunately, little attention has been given to establishing communication channels for warning so that civil defense measures like evacuation can be successful. Development of national and international capabilities and infrastructure for handling the NEO hazard must include – beyond engineering design of deflection missions -on-the-ground disaster management procedures. An integrated international framework for responding to the NEO threat has been put before the United Nations by the Association of Space Explorers International Panel on Asteroid Threat Mitigation, which constitutes a first step of engagement between NEO scientists and engineers and the international disaster management community.